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Retail technology trends 2024
As Hemingway said about bankruptcy, the same could be said about technology’s use and impact in retail. Change occurs ‘gradually, then suddenly’. As such, keeping up-to-date and informed about how technology is being adopted globally is key to being prepared for when it impacts your market, channel, category, or product.
In IGD’s presentation on retail technology trends for 2024 we investigate the opportunities and challenges that developments, from AI and computer vision to retail media, robotics, automated checkout, and traditional platforms offer. A key challenge for retailers, especially in the short term, lies in how to prioritise and invest where and how to adopt these technologies.
Use this presentation to:
- Understand the most important retail technology set to impact the grocery retail sector over the next 12 months
- Explore our view on how our five trends will evolve over the short term and how 12 retail technologies will impact them
- Consider where these trends offer opportunities and challenges for your business, in the short and medium term
- Be challenged on the key actions you, your team and your business need to take to prepare for the industry’s increasing focus on health today over the next 18 months
Global retail trends 2024
This year, the inflationary backdrop in most major markets remains on our minds. It is a considerable challenge, driving up the cost base for retailers and suppliers and pressuring shoppers’ income.
This has led to an intense focus on costs, improving efficiencies and delivering value to consumers in new ways. It has also led to retailers investigating new sources of revenue and profitability. They initiatives are helping retailers reset the cost base and develop go-to-market models for the future.
Alongside these shorter-term trends, retailers are progressing with multi-year initiatives centred on health and wellness, sustainability, and digitisation. Progress in these areas is incremental but will drive significant long-term change in the shape of our industry.
Use this presentation to:
- Understand the most important retail trends impacting the grocery retail sector over the next 12 months
- Explore IGD’s view on five trends: efficiency, retail media, technology, health, and sustainability
- Consider where these trends offer opportunities and challenges for your business, in the short and medium term
- Be challenged on the key actions you, your team and your business need to take to prepare for the industry’s increasing focus on health today over the next 18 months
UK market forecasts 2023-2028
New forecasts provide a complete picture of the UK market
The total UK food and drink market is predicted to be worth £315.2bn by 2028, experiencing a growth of 19% from 2023 (£265bn), according to a unique new forecast from IGD that presents a combined outlook covering eating in and eating out.
Merging IGD’s sought after UK retail and eating out forecasts, the new outlook provides a total picture of the challenges and opportunities across the whole food and drink market over the next five years, including a comparison and breakdown of both sectors.
Forecasted growth for the total market is driven largely by inflation, which IGD predicts peaked in March 2023. However, growth is down in real terms across the total landscape due to the impact the cost-of-living crisis is having on consumer spending, with the eating out sector more impacted as consumers switch to eating at home to save money.
In retail, consumers are also trading down to private label and discount options. By 2025 the market will begin to stabilise as inflation lowers and household disposable incomes rise.
UK food-to-go market forecast 2023-2028
IGD’s new forecast values food-to-go market at £22.9 bn in 2023
IGD’s latest food-to-go market outlook forecasts the value of the market and its five sectors to 2028. These forecasts are aligned with our eating out and retail channel forecasts , covering the food-to-go market specifically across the following five sectors:
- Coffee and drinks specialists
- Fast food specialists
- Food-to-go specialists
- Convenience stores, forecourts and other retailers
- Supermarkets and hypermarkets
The total value of the UK food-to-go market in 2023 is forecast to reach £22.9bn – a 6.2% increase from 2022. However, the main driver of this growth is inflation. Declining frequency, penetration and down-trading means that in real terms, the market will be down 3.3% vs 2022.
Real growth will return in 2024, but growth will be driven by inflation.
The total food-to-go market will return to real-term growth in 2024. However, this will only represent a small proportion of overall growth, as continued inflation and reduced disposable income will dampen demand. In 2025 and 2026, consumers will return to food-to-go more frequently and spend more as their budgets start to allow. This will see real growth rates increase and become the main contributor to overall market growth, rather than inflation.
The efficiency imperative
The efficiency imperative is one of six global retail trends IGD identified at the start of this year.
At the forefront of IGD’s thinking has been the inflationary backdrop in most major markets, which has driven a significant increase in production costs and retail prices. Meanwhile, the collective actions of central banks have increased borrowing costs, which has put businesses and consumers under pressure.
This has led to an intense focus on driving out costs, improving efficiencies and delivering value to consumers in new ways. While many of the initiatives are reactionary, they are helping retailers reset the cost base and develop go-to-market models for the future.
Use this presentation to:
- Understand how global, best-in-class retailers continue to progress multi-year initiatives centred on health and wellness, sustainability, and digitisation
- Appreciate how retailers are rethinking all aspects of operations and innovating to protect their future profitability
- See where you can maximise your opportunities to limit costs across five areas of retailers’ businesses: operate, supply, fill, sell, and optimise
- Be challenged on the key actions you, your team or your business need to take to prepare for the evolving nature of retailers’ businesses in the next 18 months
Global grocery markets growth 2023-2028
After experiencing unprecedented levels of inflation in 2022 and 2023, rates are starting to decrease for many countries. Inflation, though, is expected to stay above pre-pandemic levels throughout 2024, due to rising prices and input costs, including energy prices.
This will continue to have an impact on shopper buying habits, with retailers needing to adapt to meet shoppers’ evolving needs. Value has been, and will remain, the short-term focus across most regions. However, it is important to acknowledge that not all markets have experienced inflationary challenges, especially in Asia, which creates different opportunities and considerations.
Use this presentation to:
- See IGD’s forecasts for how grocery markets will grow over the next five years globally and for 42 countries around the world
- Have visibility on where the largest growth opportunities exist
- Benchmark growth expectations in key markets
- Take the implications for your business and enable you to question how you can benefit the growth of grocery markets globally
Health trends 2024: strategies for a fitter future
Strategies for a fitter future are set to be an increasingly significant driver of change in the retail industry in 2024 and beyond. Health requires long-term consideration given how the topic spans diverse but interconnected issues, from healthcare and nutrition to physical movement and underserved health needs.
The report considers the interplay between health and IGD’s other global trends for 2024 while taking an in-depth look at four focus areas IGD’s analysts have identified as driving strategies for a fitter future. The initiatives, which impact retailers and suppliers in different ways, include the evolution of legislation and policy, how companies can inspire customers to get moving, and, separately, how they can serve diverse health needs. Finally, IGD looks at how retailers are expanding into healthcare as a new revenue stream.
The trends set to shape the eating out market in 2024 and beyond
Following a series of difficult years, 2024 is likely to be more settled. The eating out industry will face fewer pressures and shocks than in previous years and should be preparing for a return to volume growth towards the end of the year as consumers start to see recovering real incomes.
Starting with the big questions for 2024, IGD has defined three drivers of change:
- External drivers: the economic outlook remains uncertain, and the potential change in government will likely bring changes to legislation too
- Consumer drivers: incomes will start to recover for some as real wage growth returns. This will influence consumers’ priorities, as disposable incomes begin to build back up
- Industry drivers: the eating out industry will take measures to drive recovery, finding new avenues for growth in volumes, revenues and margins, and leading the way on longer-term issues
From these drivers, IGD’s experts have identified five trends that will shape the eating out market in 2024 and beyond.
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