The secret is out: Data-driven demand forecasting is Nando's spicy new ingredient     

Introduction

By partnering with Predictive Insights, Nando’s achieved: 

• Fewer stock shortages

• Improved operational efficiency

• Enhanced staff and customer experiences

• Waste reduction

Using Predictive Insights’ forecasts, restaurant managers (Patrãos) can precisely order stock and prepare chickens, cutting waste by 20%. This accuracy prevents shortages, reduces wastage, and improves service speed.

It’s about the people

Nando's: “We make (delicious) chicken” 

Predictive Insights: “We make sure there is enough chicken to make, and the right people to make it.” 

Nando's, the well-known global restaurant chain famous for its flame-grilled chicken and no-holds-barred advertising campaigns, has long prided itself on its commitment to people: both loyal customers and dedicated staff. As Nando's Restaurant Support Director, Chris Swanepoel puts it:

“It’s the people that make the chicken, and we are always looking for ways to empower our restaurant managers (Patrãos) [and] staff (Nandocas), and improve our customers’ experience.”  

A recipe for success 

More time for strategic work

While Nando's had already automated some of their sales forecasting processes, restaurant managers (Patrãos) still relied on their own area knowledge, intuition, and daily budgets (provided a year in advance by head office) to plan stock orders, production, and staffing rosters. This meant Patrãos spent a significant part of their day working on complex sales calculations, taking them away from their employees and customers.  

This posed significant challenges:

 “QSRs rely on very time-sensitive production planning. Food has a shelf life for a reason, quality is impacted, staff are impacted and, naturally, your customers are impacted,” says Chris, “running short of chicken at a chicken restaurant is undoubtedly the most stressful outcome for any manager to deal with, as are high levels of waste, and idle staff.”  

Humane AI

Recognising the potential to improve their operations, Nando's chose to leverage data and machine-assisted insights and partnered with Predictive Insights (PI). Chris added: 

“Predictive Insights shared our commitment to people-first values and really took the time to understand our operational style, lingo, and our particular challenges – this made a significant and massive difference to our interactions."  

A flavourful fusion  

How we did it

Predictive Insights began by running a pilot project with 20 stores (casas) in South Africa, where they worked closely with restaurant managers (Patrãos)  to understand their operations, and how to easily get their forecasts into Nando's current system to make life easier for Patrãos.

 “Trust was essential—we aimed to empower Patrãos, not replace them,” explains Neil Rankin, Predictive Insights’ CEO.  

The data

Predictive Insights combined three years of Nando's point-of-sales data, with their own data on local economic conditions, the broader state of the economy (including things like special events, holidays, paydays, etc.), and consumer behaviour. Using these data sets and a suite of machine learning and economic algorithms they were able to produce granular, hour-by-hour sales forecasts for each casa, for the next 3-6 weeks. 

The results: 

Production planning:  Using these forecasts, restaurant managers (Patrãos)  are able to determine precise stock orders and the number of chickens to prepare, reducing waste by 20%. Accurate ordering mitigated stock shortages and ensured the right amount of food was prepared, reducing wastage and enhancing speed of service.

Staff scheduling: The system also uses sales forecasts to determine the optimal staff allocation across the casa, sales channels, and times of day. “It’s not about getting rid of staff but improving the quality of the job. By planning and splitting shifts, casas now have the right staff available, in the right numbers, able to deal with the right number of orders in peak times; and none sitting disengaged and idle during off-peak times,” says Neil.  

Customer experience: The benefits extended to Nando's customers as well. With improved production planning and staff scheduling, customers enjoyed better food quality, quicker service, and an overall improved dining experience. As Chris puts it: "It’s simple: better planning; happier staff; quicker, better service; better food; satisfied customers.” Neil adds, “And this has a direct link to sales, the more satisfied people you can move through the casa, the more people you can service”.  

Staff empowerment:  

“Predictive Insights has given us the ability to do Intelligent Sales Forecasting which is not only much more accurate, but relies a lot less on the restaurant managers’ (Patrãos)  intuition and year-in-advance daily budgets from head office. More importantly, superstar Patrãos still retain the ability to adjust the forecasts based on their intimate knowledge of their casa, area, and clientele, validating and empowering them. It now only takes them 3 minutes a day – a substantial time-saving.  As an operations person, the fact that no one is coming to me asking questions really shows that our Patrãos trust the system.” - Chris Swanepoel

Continuous improvement: 

“And it just gets better,” Chris says, "Predictive Insights’ machine learning system is dynamic, constantly learning, and the forecasts get more and more accurate over time.  

Conclusion

The partnership between Nando’s and Predictive Insights has proven to be a powerful example of how data-driven solutions can transform operations in the fast-paced world of quick-service restaurants.

By integrating machine learning and real-time data analysis, Nando’s achieved significant improvements across operations — all while maintaining their people-first approach. These include:

• Production planning

• Waste reduction

• Staff scheduling, and

• Overall customer satisfaction

As Nando’s continues to grow, Predictive Insights’ dynamic forecasting models will continue to evolve, ensuring ongoing operational efficiency while empowering restaurant managers to focus on what matters most: great people, great food, and great customer experiences.